Because the Internet and computers were home-grown in America, it’s no surprise that the Internet naming convention (.com, .net, .org) and computer keyboards and software interfaces are based on the English language. That has helped to push English into the dominant second language worldwide for people doing business across borders.
In a fascinating survey done by Pew Internet & American Life and Elon University, various experts weighed in on possible future scenarios for 2020, including the following:
In 2020, networked communications have leveled the world into one big political, social, and economic space in which people everywhere can meet and have verbal and visual exchanges regularly, face-to-face, over the Internet. English will be so indispensable in communicating that it displaces some languages.
It’s a controversial contention — that English will actually displace other languages — and most respondents (57%) disagreed with that statement. Many people thought that automated translation technologies will improve to the point where language differences might evaporate in instant messaging or email conversations. Perhaps that could make a difference, too, in the amount and diversity of media we can consume online. If we could understand the vast array of Mandarin-language blogs, could we learn more about what’s going on in China?
Internet architecture pioneer and Microsoft wireless networking guru Christian Huitema responded to the survey scenario by noting how technology had actually enabled communication across language divides — rather than forcing people to learn English in every instance.
“Computer technology increases the frequency of communication, which creates a desire to communicate across boundaries,” Huitema wrote. “But the technology also enables communication in multiple languages, using various alphabets. In fact by 2020 we might see automatic translation systems.”
Others pointed out that the Internet and technology has actually helped to preserve dying languages by allowing people to communicate with other people who may have been dispersed around the world.
Steve Cisler, who is working on satellite-based public-access Internet projects, answered the survey question like this: “Indigenous languages will have a hard time changing to accommodate the impact of popular media languages, though more people will use ICT [information and communication technology] to try to revitalize some languages or spread the use of them outside of local places.”
There was also a thesis that the English language itself would be transformed by 2020, absorbing words and slang from other languages, and even taking on some of the abbreviations that proliferate in electronic communication (e.g. IMHO = in my humble opinion). One respondent felt that English would break into many sublanguages, while another considered the possibility that there would be more English dialects created by the mixing of so many cultures in the online realm.
The Rise of Mandarin
Many experts who answered the survey noted that as millions more Chinese started to go online, Mandarin might challenge the dominance of English as the lingua franca. One structural change that could help other languages prosper online is coming from the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN). The group is finally testing foreign-language domain names so that people around the world could enjoy a web-surfing experience completely in their own language. That might well speed the rise of other languages such as Mandarin online.
Bret Fausett, who runs the ICANN blog, and U.S. Internet policy analyst Alan Inouye both predicted a decline in English dominance online.
“We’re at the peak of the English language on the Internet,” Fausett wrote. “As internationalized domain names are introduced over the next few years, allowing users to conduct their entire online experience in their native language, English will decline as the central language of the Internet.”
Inouye didn’t like the idea of English “displacing” other languages. He said English would continue to be the de facto international language, but saw hope for the rise in Mandarin online.
“There are countervailing forces against English language dominance on networks,” Inouye wrote. “Networks such as the Internet facilitate the development of communities of common interests and languages among people who may be widely dispersed geographically. Also, we will see a dramatic increase in Chinese-language content.”
One of the great features of the Pew/Elon survey is that they allow people to submit their own takes on the questions posed to experts on a special website. For this particular scenario on the English language displacing other languages, Pew/Elon has a full page of quotes from people who remained anonymous. On that page, many people spoke up about the rise of Mandarin online, and against the notion that English would dominate in 2020. Their consensus was that English is a bridging language, and will continue to be one, but it will not largely displace or invalidate other languages.
Here’s a smattering of anonymous quotes on the subject:
“Hindi or Chinese might be the dominant internet language by [2020].”
“The role of English has only gone down over the past decade. Maybe it’s time for us all to learn Mandarin. That would make sense.”
“Local languages and cultures will continue to show resilience. There will be a backlash. English at a low level will spread wider, but indigenous languages will be just as indispensable.”
“It has often been said that a language is a dialect that has its own army. Just as languages often spread through conquest, English will continue to spread through economic conquest. Not that English-speaking countries will necessarily rule, but the need for ever-bigger markets will force consolidation into those languages which already have the most speakers. English will be one of those languages, but not the only one.”
“English currently dominates the Internet; that will continue to decrease irrespective of the fact that English will continue to grow as language of science and education. The Internet will become much more language diverse!”
What do you think? Will English continue to be the lingua franca online and in global business and tourism? Can Mandarin gain a foothold online or will its pictorial characters hinder wider growth? What advantages and disadvantages do you see in having a global common language?
UPDATE: A lot of you made persuasive arguments in the comments, doubting that Mandarin could gain on English as an international language. My gut feeling is that you’re right, English will remain as the dominant second language around the world, and Mandarin will gain in importance but perhaps not surpassing English. Perhaps the problem with my blog post is the overly simplistic headline. A more accurate headline would be: “The Global Language: Mandarin Will Gain But Not Overtake English by 2020.” Perhaps a bit clunky but more accurate.
View Comments (28)
Mandarin Chinese is spoken in 16 countries. More people speak Mandarin Chinese than any other language. The current number of native speakers is approximately 937, 132, 000.
English, on the other hand, is the most dominant of languages, spoken by roughly 322, 000, 000 in 104 countries. This probably has to do with English being shaped from a multitude of other tongues, including German, Hindi, Italian, Dutch, and Spanish.
English is likely to remain one of the world's most important languages for the foreseeable future.
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as much as La Raza and other Spanish-language Hate groups in the US would like you to think that "we'll all be speaking Spanish by 2020", their dead wrong.
when the spanish-speaking nations have a military like ours,..maybe. til then? haahah.....not gonna happen
I have learned English for 8 years, now, I feel happy when i can read almost everything on Internet by English. I can travel to everywhere on the world, read many attractive travel articles.
In our country - Vietnam, English has been popular for some recent years!
In Vietnam, children are taught English when they are 7 years old. So that, tourists do not hesitate to ask with any one when travling in Vietnam.
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In Vietnam, children are taught English when 7 years old. So that, when tourists
come into Vietnam, do not hesitate to ask any person.
Studing Mandarin is not impossible.
It just takes dedication and a lot of time. Usually foreigners from Canada and the US need about 9 years to speak Mandarin. And thats if they really study hard. People from korea or Japan usually only need 2-4 years because they already know half the characters.
Learning Mandarin is not impossible it is just very difficult. Usually foreingers from the US and Canada need 9 years to speak Mandarin, and thats if they study really hard. Those from korea or Japan only need 2-4 years to speak mandarin because they already know half of the characters.
Actually, I have been learning both English and Mandarin since kindergarten. Mandarin is my mother tongue and I admit that it is more difficult than English. Any small changes to a word, or any small changes to the tone of the word would result in different meaning and a word may have several different pronunciation, each with different tones. So a word may have many meaning. In Mandarin, they are many four-word idioms, and other idioms (may be 7-word, and so on), and many other poems(there are many types of poem) and so on. Hence, people would not waste time to drop English and adopt Mandarin which is more difficult than English so much...
As an international teacher of English, I can safely say that Mandarin has no future as a global language. Even in Southeast Asia, few people are enthusiastic about learning Mandarin. Indians (1 billion people) have little interest in Mandarin. The Japanese dislike the Chinese and refuse to learn Mandarin. So who actually wants to learn Mandarin?